Dane County is poised for significant growth over the next 25 years, with projections from the Wisconsin Department of Administration indicating an increase of nearly 200,000 residents by 2050. About half of that growth is expected to occur in Madison itself, which underscores ongoing challenges in housing availability and affordability throughout the region.

The county’s population is projected to rise by 39% from 2020 to 2050, reaching nearly 780,000 people. Madison, the county’s hub, is expected to grow by 30+% over the same period, expanding from an estimated 288,300 residents in 2024 to approximately 371,000 by 2050. These projections suggest that Madison and Dane County will continue to be growth hotspots, diverging sharply from trends in much of Wisconsin, where the overall population is expected to decline by 3%—a loss of about 184,000 residents statewide.

This rapid growth trajectory is largely attributed to Madison’s thriving economy, high quality of life, and vibrant cultural scene. However, the influx of new residents is exacerbating an already pressing housing shortage. Since the Great Recession, housing development has lagged behind population growth. Today, city leaders cite low vacancy rates, limited housing options, and increased rates of homelessness as symptoms of this imbalance.

Amber Huemmer, Owner/Realtor with The Huemmer Home Team, has witnessed this transformation firsthand. With years of real estate experience in Dane County, Amber and her team specialize in helping buyers and sellers navigate the increasingly competitive Madison housing market. Their deep local knowledge and client-first approach make them a trusted resource as more families look to call Madison, WI area home.

The housing shortfall is particularly acute with housing types like duplexes, townhomes, and small apartment buildings that serve as a bridge between single-family homes and large apartment complexes. These types of developments, like those seen in east Madison, offer critical solutions for accommodating a diverse and growing population. But experts warn that more needs to be done.

Rental vacancy rates remain low, pushing rents higher. At the same time, limited availability of homes for purchase — especially in the affordable and high-end segments — is creating a mismatch between demand and supply. Higher-income buyers often snap up moderately priced homes, further driving up prices and reducing access for middle- and lower-income families.

Population growth also raises questions about the future of local school districts. School enrollment is influenced by the type and volume of housing being built. In Madison, most new developments are apartments, which typically house fewer school-aged children. However, these developments still contribute to local tax bases, providing much-needed funding to school districts.

As Madison and Dane County look to the future, there is widespread recognition that growth is inevitable — but how the region plans for and manages that growth will be critical. For families seeking housing in this dynamic market, working with experienced professionals like Amber Huemmer and The Huemmer Home Team can make all the difference. Their guidance can help clients navigate complex market conditions and find homes that meet their needs in a rapidly evolving community.

The Huemmer Home Team, LPT Realty